Why This Checklist Matters
In today’s volatile economy, 1 in 3 small business loans default within 5 years. As a lender, asking the right questions upfront can mean the difference between a profitable portfolio and catastrophic losses. This 100-point due diligence framework—refined from 20+ years of cross-border lending—helps you spot risks early and structure safer deals.
Key Due Diligence Categories
(Condensed for actionable insights)
1. Industry & Market Risks (10 Critical Qs)
🔹 Sector Viability:
- Is the industry emerging, mature, or declining? (e.g., fossil fuels vs. AI startups)
- How sensitive is it to economic cycles, regulations, or tech disruption?
- Are profit margins above/below industry averages?
🔹 Competitive Positioning:
- Is the business a market leader or struggling mid-tier player?
- Does it face oversupply, price wars, or substitution threats? (e.g., EVs killing gas cars)
2. Ownership & Governance Red Flags (12 Qs)
🔹 Shadow Control Risks:
- Are beneficial owners clearly identified, or is equity held by shell companies?
- Do “silent partners” have criminal/financial scandals? (Run LexisNexis checks)
🔹 Management Gaps:
- Is there high turnover in CFO/COO roles? (Sign of fraud or incompetence)
- Does the CEO avoid site visits while claiming 80-hour workweeks?
3. Financial Statement Forensic Analysis (25 Qs)
🔹 Cash Flow Truth-Testing:
- Compare reported revenue with bank deposits, tax filings, and supplier invoices.
- If accounts receivable >6 months old, why aren’t clients paying?
🔹 Debt Traps:
- Are short-term loans funding long-term assets? (Classic “loan stacking” red flag)
- Is the debt-to-EBITDA ratio above 4x? (High default correlation)
4. Collateral & Legal Pitfalls (15 Qs)
🔹 Asset Verification:
- Are inventory/equipment values inflated? (e.g., “$500K machinery” is 10 years old)
- Check UCC filings: Is collateral double-pledged to other lenders?
🔹 Contract Loopholes:
- Do supplier agreements allow raw material repossession if unpaid?
- Are key patents/copyrights pledged elsewhere?
Case Study: The $2M Loan That Almost Went Bad
Client: A Midwest manufacturer claimed 40% annual growth, but due diligence revealed:
- $1.2M “receivables” were from a defunct distributor.
- The “new factory” was an empty lot with doctored photos.
- The CFO quit abruptly during underwriting.
Outcome: Deal rejected. Company filed Ch.11 months later.
Top 5 Overlooked Questions
- “Show me your business credit card statements” – Reveals undisclosed cash advances.
- “Who audits your inventory counts?” – Exposes phantom stock schemes.
- “What’s your busiest month for returns?” – Uncovers seasonal liquidity crunches.
- “Which competitor do you fear most?” – Tests market awareness.
- “Walk me through one day of operations” – Detects front businesses.
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